The Batt;e For The Senate

THE BATTLE FOR THE SENATE By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews Correspondent This is only the fourth time in U.S. history that the Senate has been precisely split between parties. (The first was 1881, when Vice President Chester Arthur repeatedly served as tiebreaker.) Notably, it has never stayed tied for more than two years at a time. Which brings us to 2022 and the fight by each party to push the current 50-50 Senate in their respective directions. The basic numbers: Current makeup of the Senate: 50 in the Democratic caucus (48 D, 2 I) 50 Republicans Senate races next year: 34 total By party: 14 D, 20 R Nerd note: this is “Class III,” the third of the three “classes” or groups of Senate seats. A different class is up for election every two years. Open seats: 3, so far. All are Republican. These are open because of the retirements of Sens. Richard Burr, R-N.C., Rob Portman, R-Ohio, and Pat Toomey, R-Pa. These retirements -- each in a potential swing state -- are one reason that many Senate watchers give the edge in the Senate contest to Democrats. Who’s vulnerable? Let’s use the breakdown from our friends at the Cook Political Report. Competitive races: 9. These are races considered “toss-up” or “lean”-ing one way or the other. These nine contests likely will decide control of the U.S. Senate. Current toss-up races: 3. All are Republican. Those are the open seats in North Carolina and Pennsylvania as well as Republican Sen. Ron Johnson’s seat in Wisconsin. Seats “leaning”: 2 Republican and 4 Democrats. Let’s talk about the toss-ups first. North Carolina. This is a big money race, both in the primary and the general. Former congressman Mark Walker and former governor Pat McCrory are in the packed GOP field but current Rep. Ted Budd has snagged the endorsement of former President Donald Trump. Democrats have some stars in their orbit as well: former State Supreme Court justice Cheri Beasley is in and former Rep. Heath Schuler is considering it, though time to decide may be running out. Pennsylvania. The state that voted Obama then Trump then Biden is a must-watch in nearly every modern election. And next year it is also the greatest pick-up hope of Democrats. As you’d expect, both parties have crowded fields. But keep an eye on the Republican race especially, with former Trump officials and current Fox News commentators in the ring. Democrats are hoping for a well-known candidate on their end and a far-right candidate for Republicans. For both parties, this could be a replay of some 2020 dynamics. Wisconsin. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson has yet to announce if he will run for reelection. Should Johnson decide he wants to keep his job, the Cook Political Report says it’s a toss-up for voters. The conservative firebrand and former chairman of the Homeland Security Committee has won points with Trump by making a name for himself in the Senate as one of his key supporters. But Johnson also has one of the lowest approval ratings of any Republican incumbent,and has raised ire by repeatedly downplaying the events of Jan. 6. Democrats have a spectrum of candidates, from a radiologist who has never run for office to the state’s current treasurer and a professional basketball executive. Which Democrats are the most vulnerable? Arizona. Democrat and former astronaut Mark Kelly just won his seat last year in a special election. The party’s hope to defend it lies with Kelly’s steady, no-news-here approach and the growth in new voters in his state. Republican Gov. Doug Ducey may enter the race, though he and Trump have been at odds. The question is who, if anyone, could tap into continued Republican anger over the state results in 2020 and not ostracize too many swing independents. Georgia. The Senate’s most junior member, Democrat Raphael Warnock, faces an intense contest. Republicans have interest from multiple U.S. congressmen and state officials, but headlines surround NFL great and Trump supporter Herschel Walker, who seemed to indicate he’s joining the race. New Hampshire.There is one question above all others for Sen. Maggie Hassan and Democrats: Will the state’s current governor run against her? Republican Gov. Chris Sununu has said he is open to the idea but is taking his time deciding. Nevada. Catherine Cortez-Masto is a freshman Democratic senator running in a state where the margins are still thin; President Joe Biden won last year by just 30,000 votes. But the Republican field so far is small. Which other Republicans are the most vulnerable? Florida. Ten years ago, Marco Rubio was a Tea Party darling. Six years ago, he was a White House contender openly in conflict with Trump. Now he is brandishing Trump’s endorsement. But he faces a high-profile Democrat showdown with Rep. Val Demings, a former police chief who is running on progressive messages on race and gender. Ohio. The Buckeye State is among the few purple-ish states which decidedly increased support for Trump from 2016 to 2020. This is one reason the Republican contest is heavy with candidates in the race to replace retiring Rob Portman. A former state treasurer, a current congressman and “Hillbilly Elegy” author J.D. Vance are all in the mix. For Democrats, Rep. Tim Ryan is out in front so far, eyeing a potential opening if the GOP picks a candidate too far to the right for the state. The Senate battle overall The math here favors Democrats. They simply have fewer vulnerable Senators at the moment and more solid challengers to Republicans. But midterm elections can swing quickly and widely, and Democrats do not have room for error. A shift in public sentiment could easily make their challenging-but-doable quest to keep the Senate more steeply uphill.